Sea-Level Rise Projections

Sea-level rise (SLR) presents unprecedented challenges to Floridians, their communities, and Florida’s ecosystems. A first step in understanding the challenge is to understand how much SLR we have seen, how sea level is rising around Florida, and the best estimates possible for future SLR. These projections are those developed at the regional scale in Florida and national-level projections, including a tool that allows users to get an estimate based on local information and using multiple national-level estimates of SLR.

 

Regional 

East Central Florida: Regional Resiliency Action Plan December 2018 – The SLR projections  

Reports on increased incidence of tidal flooding  

• Union of Concerned Scientists – June 2018  

NOAA reports 

• 2017 State Climate Summary for Florida 
• NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 090, 2018 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2019 Outlook 

Non-fiction books about SLR

• High Tide on Main Street by John Englander 
• The Water Will Come by Jeff Goodell 
• Sea Level Rise in Florida: Science, Impacts, and Options by Albert C. Hine, Don P. Chambers, Tonya D. Clayton, Mark R. Hafen, and Gary T. Mitchum 
• Possibly – Rising: Dispatches from the New American Shore by Elizabeth Rush

Documentaries/Videos

 

• Shored Up  
• “Sinking Cities: Miami”, PBS 
• “Jack Black: Saving Miami”, The Years Project 
• Climate Change: “A Way Forward: Facing Climate Change”, National Geographic 
• “Before the Flood” 

 

 

Peer-reviewed publications related to SLR from authors affiliated with the Florida Climate Institute.

More publications are available via the Florida Climate Institute website (https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/). 

Modeling 

• Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico (2016) 

• Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape (2014) 

Transportation, Infrastructure, and Financial Impacts 

• Identifying FDOT’s Physical Transportation Infrastructure Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise (2014) 
• Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure (2019)
• Assessing the Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise and Benefits of Coastal Protection: A Spatiotemporal Approach (2017) 
• “Living on the edge”: Estimating the economic cost of sea level rise on coastal real estate in the Tampa Bay region, Florida (2016) 
• Climate Change Projected Effects on Coastal Foundation Communities of the Greater Everglades Using a 2060 Scenario: Need for a New Management Paradigm (2015) 
• Drowning In Place: Local Government Costs and Liabilities for Flooding Due to Sea-Level Rise (2013) 

Ecosystem and Ecosystem Services Impacts 

• How Much Are Floridians Willing to Pay for Protecting Sea Turtles from Sea Level Rise? (2016) 
• Florida’s Oceans and Marine Habitats in a Changing Climate. (2017) 
• Implications of Climate Change on Florida’s Water Resources. (2017)
• Shifting baselines in coastal forests: Rising seas transform plant communities from the ‘ground’ up (2019)
• Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level (2018)
• High temporal resolution modeling of the impact of rain, tides, and sea level rise on water table flooding in the Arch Creek basin, Miami-Dade County Florida USA (2018)
• Effects of future sea level rise on coastal habitat ( 2019) 
• Remote sensing of unhelpful resilience to sea level rise caused by mangrove expansion: A case study of islands in Florida Bay, USA (2019)

Land Use Planning and Social Impacts 

• Assessing Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Public Health and Vulnerable Populations in Southeast Florida and Providing a Framework to Improve Outcomes (2016)
• Possible impacts of sea level rise on disease transmission and potential adaptation strategies, a review (2018) 
• Adaptation planning for sea level rise: a study of US coastal cities (2016)
• Tidal hydrodynamics under future sea level rise and coastal morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (2016)
• Climate Change Impacts on Law and Policy in Florida. (2017) 
• Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise (2017) 
• Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida (2016)
• Modeling Land-Use Change and Population Relocation Dynamics in Response to Different Sea Level Rise Scenarios: Case Study in Bay County, Florida 9 (2017)
• Spatial conservation prioritization to conserve biodiversity in response to sea level rise and land use change in the Matanzas River Basin, Northeast Florida (2015) 
• Low-Regrets Incrementalism: Land Use Planning Adaptation to Accelerating Sea Level Rise in Florida’s Coastal Communities (2016)

Non-Peer Reviewed Articles

• “Can It Happen Here? Improving the Prospect for Managed Retreat by US Cities” 
• “Ocean at the Door: New Homes and the Rising Sea” 
• “Climate Change: Opportunities to Reduce Federal Fiscal Exposure” GAO-19-625T-0
• National Climate Assessment Chapter 8: Coastal Effects
• Sea level rise could reshape the United States, trigger migration inland 
• “Sea-Level Rise and Changing Times for Florida Local Governments”
• “Urban Areas in Coastal Zones”